Morgan Stanley International Bank; in 2009 China's investment and risk analysis

Morgan Stanley International Bank; in 2009 China's investment and risk analysis Speaker: Morgan Stanley International Bank of Asia (China) Co., Ltd. and chairman of the legal representative of Mr. He Ning 】 【Moderator: I thank Mr. Yuan Yue. Below please Morgan Stanley International Bank of Asia (China) Co., Ltd. and chairman of the legal representative of Mr. He Ning, bring us the title of "2009 China's investment and risk analysis" of the speech, there are, please! 【He Ning】: Thank you! I would like to talk about the sub-prime crisis, the United States in 2006, when the real estate trend as the U.S. economy's fundamentals change, 2006,2007-year period, as many financial products, because the Government's real estate market Lack of supervision, the real estate market prices have been up in the madness, Market there were a lot of new financial products, so that led to the sub-prime crisis, this is what does that mean? In accordance with the bank's processes to make the loans have very strict requirements, but the lack of regulatory management, a lot of loans to real estate are not necessarily into real estate. Largely because the financial crisis caused by sub-loan. We are also from an investment bank has become a commercial bank holding company, this whole crisis on the real economy is a big shock, we have the Chairman of the Asian region that the current financial crisis may have already gone 60 percent to 70 percent, but the impact on the real economy, may also be just the beginning, 30% to 40%, which is of course benevolent see benevolence, wise men see things unwise. However, we can see that the financial sector in the United States there are many problems because of lower income, many people can not afford to pay the monthly repayment of housing requirements. China's influence on what is it? We also can see that the impact of external very important, but the reason for the economic slowdown and the economy some difficulties, there are three main reasons: First, we believe that some people overheated real estate section, making the central authorities have adopted some measures to control, these measures led to the development of real estate slowdown. This we believe that the current economic slowdown is a main reason. Second, because we are too much inventory, production activities caused by the overall slowdown. Inventories increased, there are intermediate products to a large extent. As we all know, over the past few years, iron ore, petroleum, copper, coal prices of rapid growth, there is usually three to four times the growth. Financial crisis, especially after the start of the economic crisis, the prices of these products fell sharply. Therefore, a great impact on the domestic. Third, the export of our GDP, the contribution rate is currently less than 19 percent in the current economic growth is relying on domestic consumption and investment. What happens next year's economy, we have a judge next year's economy can reach about 7.5 percent of GDP growth, there is a variable that is the biggest change in the real estate itself. Of course, we still more optimistic attitude, the central goal is the growth rate of 8 percent, we believe that 7.5 percent, but from two perspectives, if the world economy in a very fast recovery, we may reach 9% growth rate, otherwise, the real estate industry has a lot of frustration, may only have 6 percent growth. But we are optimistic, optimism is based on the following reasons: First, the central action very quickly, the current means is unprecedented, including the constant rate cut to stimulate economic growth, and so on the way. The central authorities in dealing with the determination of the financial crisis and action is much more powerful than in the past. Secondly, it is now the central great determination, but there will be a central behind a series of administrative measures, or financial means, to ensure that next year's growth targets. Third, the real estate itself, and now some of the measures the central authorities also seek to enhance the confidence of real estate, this will be on next year's growth of real estate of great help. Fourth, the commodity prices will remain low to keep running. Fifth, as the external conditions change. Japan, the European Union and the United States, action is being taken unprecedented operation, some means of financial support may come into effect in the second half of next year, if the second half of next year, the economic recession the country from the economic recession coming out of exports to China will be very great help. Central what way, I just said, there may be a series of financial means, of course, is 4000000000000 we can see, in the money supply and monetary control is likely there will be some new measures, we also I believe that next year there will be interest rate cuts. In addition, the devaluation of the renminbi is now to maintain a posture, this posture is to stimulate exports. My theme today is next year's investment opportunities. Now that the Government's financial expenditure 4000000000000, mainly in the public expenditure side, public expenditure on investment in infrastructure investment, etc., will bring about considerable employment, but the consumer market, the conduction efficiency of individuals there may be period of time, through continuously improve the employment rate to boost consumption. Therefore, this will be a period of time. Public expenditure on employment of great help, but the technical facilities for non-profit, not necessarily very helpful, especially when next year. So, if that investment is clearly the direction for the support by the Government related industries. The real estate itself, we are very concerned about next year, the greatest impact is the face of real estate, our company believes that if next year is 7.5 percent of GDP growth, we are worried about real estate here, there will be a relatively large contraction, but We also think that next year's economic growth in addition to a series of government measures, the real estate market is largely the overall growth of our changes. Because of the time, I would say so much, thank you!